Forecast for sunspot cycle 25 activity
نویسندگان
چکیده
Yearly sunspot cycle 24 (SC24) activity reached a minimum in December 2019. Timeline for SC25 is explored with data numbers (SSNs) and geomagnetic indices (aa/Ap) using our time-tested heuristic methodology not based on any model. We infer may be as active SC24, reaching its peak (Rmax) February 2024 ± 6 months, ruling out Dalton-like 21st century well McIntosh et al. (2020) forecast that “SC25 could have magnitude rivals the top few since records began.” Wide range of forecasts challenges understanding solar dynamo operation reliability future long-term space weather / climate forecasts. cannot anticipate whether multiple peaks; no theory tuned to predict fine structure SC. During ascending phase SC24 CME from Sun barely missed Earth. A direct hit by it caused damage trillions dollars, shutting down power grid rendering satellites blind.
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Advances in Space Research
سال: 2022
ISSN: ['0273-1177', '1879-1948']
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asr.2021.09.035